Villar gains ground versus Aquino

Posted on | February 4, 2010 | No Comments

LIBERAL PARTY standard-bearer Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III remains the top pick among the 10 presidential aspirants green-lighted by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) but the Nationalista Party’s (NP) Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar appears to be fast catching up.

With the campaign period yet to officially start, a new BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found 42% of respondents saying they would vote for Mr. Aquino, four points down from the 46% who said so in an early December poll that was also commissioned by this newspaper.

Over the period Mr. Villar, Mr. Aquino’s top challenger, picked up eight points to secure the nod of 35%, up from 27%.

Mr. Aquino — who has led the voter preference surveys since his
surprise bid for the presidency last year — saw his lead cut by a significant margin. From nineteen points in the Dec. 5-10 BW-SWS poll, he is now ahead of Mr. Villar by just seven.

The narrowing gap was also recorded in a Dec.27-28 SWS poll commissioned by a legislator (See table).

Still in third, meanwhile, was former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who lost three points to 13% from 16% previously.

The Jan. 21-24 SWS survey asked 2,100 adults nationwide the question: “Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon? (Among the names found on this list, who will you probably vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today?) The error margin used was ±2%.

The list of 10 brought back independent candidate Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas, included Vetellano “Dodong” S. Acosta of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, and removed the names of independents Oliver Lozano and Mariano Crespo.

Still in fourth, meanwhile, was the administration’s bet, former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi-CMD). His score dipped to 4% from 5% in December.
Fifth place, with 2% from 1% in the previous survey, went to Bro. Eduardo “Eddie” C. Villanueva of the Jesus is Lord movement who is running under the Bangon Pilipinas Movement.

presidential tally

Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon of the Bagumbayan-New Volunteers for a Philippines party picked up a few more voters to score 2%, up from 0.9%, while independent candidate Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A.S. Madrigal’s support was at 0.4% from 0.2%.

Mr. Acosta, who was not included in the previous survey, got 0.3%; John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes of the Ang Kapatiran Party saw his score hit 0.2% from 0.1%, while Mr. Perlas improved to 0.1% from 0.03%.

Mr. Aquino declined to answer phone calls, saying instead in a text message that he would “reserve comment until we have had a chance to study it (the survey results).” “We are getting conflicting numbers, hence my hesitancy in responding.”

Speaking on behalf of Mr. Villar, former Cavite representative and now NP spokesman Gilbert C. Remulla said: “It was no wonder why Sen. Villar’s detractors revived the C-5 issue, throwing those baseless accusations against him knowing fully well it was survey period.”

Mr. Remulla was referring to an ongoing Senate inquiry regarding alleged ethical misconduct by Mr. Villar over funding for a national road project.

“Forecasts … are proving to be correct that there is upward trend for Sen. Villar and downward trend for Sen. Aquino. It gives us further confidence that we will achieve statistical parity by next month. We expect the trend to continue,” he said.

Mr. Estrada’s spokesperson Margaux M. Salcedo, meanwhile, said in a telephone interview: “[The two-point decline] is still within the margin of error. At least his rating is steady.”

She also said the Comelec’s recent decision to allow Mr. Estrada to run amid electoral protests would “take time to sink in.” “Expectedly, it will take a while for news to get around,” she said.

Mr. Teodoro and the other presidential candidates were not immediately available for comment.

Filipinos will troop to the polls on May 10 to pick Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s successor. — Gerard S. dela Peña

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