The SWS survey, commissioned by a leading business broadsheet,  showed Villar garnering 34 percent, just two percentage points away from Aquino’s 36 percent.

With a margin of error of plus-minus 2 points, the ranking of the two presidential candidates are considered tied.

Villar lost one percentage point compared to his previous rating in the January SWS survey but Aquino shed six big percentage points.

Using the ballot format wherein respondents were made to pick out the names of the presidential candidates from a “ballot”, the question asked was:  “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente, Bise-Presidente, at mga Senador ng Pilipinas. Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naa-angkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pina-kamalamang ninyong iboboto (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as President, Vice-President, and Senators of the Philippines. Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for).”

The results of the SWS survey contrasted sharply to the latest Pulse Asia poll conducted February 21-25 or at the height of the EDSA I anniversary, showing Aquino pulling away with 36 percent to Villar’s 29 percent.

In the Pulse survey, Villar lost big in Mindanao but this was reversed in the SWS poll showing the NP candidate dipping only by one percentage point.

The SWS survey also showed former president Joseph Estrada solidifying his third ranking with 15 percent, followed by administration bet Gilberto Teodoro with 6 percent and Bro. Eddie Villanueva with 3 percent.

The BusinessWorld-commissioned SWS survey affirms earlier survey results that the presidential race was a tight race between Villar and Aquino.

A latest survey commissioned by the Manila Standard-Today (MST) also confirmed the trend showing Villar and Aquino locked in statistical tie at 34 percent and 36 percent, respectively.

Even then, the MST survey was also conducted February 20-26, falling within the EDSA I anniversary week.

NP spokesman and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said the SWS and the MST   surveys will serve as their guide in targeting areas and sectors which need to improve on in terms of message delivery and actual campaign work.

“We are confident that with the start of the local campaign late this month, our numbers will firm up as the machinery of the NP starts grinding to reach out to more grassroots centers,” he said.

Villar, for his part, said the SWS and MST surveys were proof that the NP campaign is connecting with its message of eradicating poverty and corruption through experience and leadership.

“You can’t promise wiping out hunger and corruption if you haven’t shown leadership in the past to prove that you can really do it,” Villar stressed.

The NP president nevertheless stressed they are pleased with all the survey results that have come out, whether it showed him losing seven points or one point.

The survey conducted Feb 20-26 with 2,500 respondents revealed that 34 percent chose Aquino while 32 percent chose Villar. It has a plus or minus two percent error margin on the results. Compared with the MST survey done in January, both candidates lost 2 points (Aquino, 36%; Villar, 34%).

Since December 2009, the MST survey showed that Aquino lost 12 points, while Villar improved in January when he gained 7 points.

“I’m happy that surveys have confirmed that we are responding to the hopes of the people across the country. During my campaign sorties in the provinces the people have shown that they are supporting our vision to address poverty,” Villar said in reaction to the new poll.

The MST survey used the Comelec ballot format where respondents shaded the ovals corresponding to their preferred candidate, said MST resident pollster, Pedro Laylo.

The survey showed that Villar was not affected by the C-5 road controversy as the field work was conducted when the Senate Committee of the Whole report was being discussed.

At third place is former President Joseph Estrda with 16%, three points higher than last January. Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro also gained 1 point, with 6 percent.

According to Laylo, support for Aquino remains strong in Metro Manila, Southern Luzon and the Visayas Region. Villar continues to lead in North and Central Luzon, and remains the favorite of respondents aged 25-34.

There was an 8-point spread between Aquino and Villar in the upper and middle classes in favor of Aquino; a 4-point difference between the two in favor also of Aquino among the poor classes; and a tie between them among the destitute, the report said.

###

March 8, 2010

Why? He attracts support from the middle class and the lower classes, especially the poor. The rich and upper classes prefer their old friends and allies in the trational elite.

Manny Villar has the capacity, in the longrun, to upset the status quo of mass poverty, injustice, perennial conflict, including violent conflict, high population growth. He has also the capacity to unite our fractious society and politics, and bring about effective and accountable leadership, governance, and the reform of our political institutions.

He is no pretender as the good against all evil. When you come to think of it, in our kind of costly, traditional politics most professional politicians are motivated by a mix of selfish personal interest, public service, and altruism. Even nonpoliticians are normally both virtuous and selfish. But some presidential candidates pretend to be the incarnation of ideals and virtue.

It is untrue that Manny Villar has spent billions on his campaign. He does not have that kind of money. He may have more than the others but he is not reckless, as his rivals paint him to be.

And his rivals are envious even as they also spend substantial sums; some of them do.

The propaganda is that Manny Villar is buying the presidency. But the presidency is not for sale and the great majority of our voters do not sell their votes. It is an insult to most of our people to suggest that their political support can be bought.

Manny Villar does not rely for his appeal and vision for change and reform on heroic parents, celebrity-masa appeal, nor does he personally attack his rivals. He is and wants to remain a unifyer, a coalition builder for leadership, change and reform.

He is using his own means, ideas, and persuasion in his campaign with the help of his co-leaders and supporters nationwide.

For all the unlenting damnation Manny gets for alleged misuse of his power and office, no judgment of his alledged corruption has been made by any court of justice.

Earlier on the Senate majority freed him of the charges of irregularity in the so-called insertion of an item in the appropriations act to favor his real estate. It turned out that the item had been approved four times by the Senate. The pork barrel practice institutionalizes the insertions of legislators.

Then the Senate led by his presidential rivals, chaired by the Senate president who is a known partisan, signed a resolution condemning Villar and asking him to pay back P6 billion to the government. This is one of many practices that has destroyed the Senate’s credibility. Our nationally elected Senate is one of our dysfunctional institutions of governance.

Of all presidential candidates, Manny Villar has the leadership competence, personality and experience to unite like and contrary groups and political factions. To seek to unite our weak and divided and demoralized nation. When he becomes president, Manny Villar has the understanding and the will and skill to mobilize a political majority to effect fundamental changes in our presidential and unitary politcal system. We need institutional and system change as much as a change in leaders and in our people’s condition and participation in governance.

No other presidential candidate can match Villar’s ability and credibility as an forceful national leader. Among his rival candidates Villar is the only one who became the Speaker of the House, and then the President of the Senate. As Speaker he led the House in the impeachment of a sittting President, the only one ever impeached. Because the Senate impeachment trial failed, Cabinet members dispersed, and people power and the withdrawal of support from the military and police forced the president’s resignation.

Manny Villar’s leading rival is banking mainly on the heroism of his parents and his potential for honest leadership. But given the state of the nation and the weaknesses of our democracy, we need much more than the assurance of honest leadership. Our revered President Cory was indubitably honest and religious.

In their own time, most of our presidents could not, did not, really reduce poverty and corruption substantially because of inherent weaknesses and disabilities in our kind of democratic institutions and practices and their limitations as leaders. Nor did they reduce injustice and inequality. But certainly they did what they could. So did many outstanding local government leaders who were quite successful; and some nongovernmental leaders and movements that also improved their communities.

Yet our democracy is now at risk because of its failure as a whole to deliver on its exagerrted promises and the growing dissatisfaction of our people with the way it fails to deliver on its promises. Our country is now the 12th most populous in the whole world, although it is the 71st in land area. As many as nine to ten million Filipinos have gone aboad for a better life.

Our media–that are big businesses in themselves with their own vested interests and partisanship- -belabor the weaknesses of our leaders and government while minimizing the good things being done for the people in our dysfunctional system of politics and governance. Catholic Church leaders gave us moral leadership that brought down the Marcos didtatorship. Since then bishops with their moral authority have assumed partisan roles not unlike the politicians and are campaigning for we know who.

In addition to a change in leadership, we need basic changes in our political system and our policies and programs of governance. Starting with our electoral and political party systems.

Villar has rebuilt and revitalized the Nacionalista that was the party of unity for independence from the United States partly be a coalition with other forces. Mar Roxas, not Noynoy, has also revitalized the Liberal Party one of the pillars in the original semi-two-party system we had.

Already, there is so much alarmist talk of a failure of elections. And the President of the Senate is thinking aloud that, if the elections do fail, the military and the police should assume power and authority. Another group has been planning and organizing for a Transition Revolutionary Government, also in aalliance with “progressive military leaders. This is what I mean by our democracy being at risk.

In these dire circumstances of our nation and democracy, we need a national leader who can orgnize and lead us out of our national disunity and self-destructivenes s. We face a hotly and viciously contested presidential election on May 10. An opportunity to have good, effective governnce and real reforms. Not just a contest in personality and winnability. We should not elect someone as president for on-the-job training. Because there are others who can lead us better.

Jose V. Abueva

Personal website: www.joseabueva. com

Despite relentless vilification campaign and pouring in of millions in television ads by his closest rival, Nacionalista Party (NP) standard-bearer Manny Villar continuous to hold a formidable rating compared to the freefalling numbers of Sen. Benigno Aquino III of the Liberal Party (LP).

Based on the recent survey of Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) held January 28-February 3,  Aquino led Villar by 11 percentage points, scoring 41.54 percent against Villar’s 30.63 percent.

In the newest Pulse Asia survey from February 21-25, the lead of Aquino contracted by 7 percentage points with 36 percent against Villar’s 29 percent.

Villar lost six percentage points while Aquino shed one percentage from their previous ratings of 35 percent and 37 percent, respectively, based on the Pulse Asia January 10 survey.

The latest Pulse Asia survey placed former president Joseph Estrada in third with 18 percent, Gilbert Teodoro in fourth with 7 percent and Bro. Eddie Villanueva came fifth with 2 percent.

But despite losing grounds in the latest Pulse survey, Villar’s ranking remained on upswing since this was still seven-percentage point higher than his previous Pulse December rating of 23 percent.

NP senatorial candidate and spokesman Gilbert Remulla said the latest Pulse Asia results showed that Villar maintained a considerable strong showing despite being the target of attacks by his rivals from various political camps.

Remulla said while the NP standard-bearer lost some grounds, the real story is that his closest rival, Aquino, will never be able to recover his previous high rating of 50 percent to 60 percent.

“We welcome the latest Pulse Asia results and we vow to work harder next time. It’s still two months away before elections. Our seven-point deficit is recoverable compared to the 24 percentage points lost by the closest rival,” Remulla said.

Villar, in a presidential interview with Mike Enriquez of GMA 7 and DZBB, said his rivals have continued to besmirch his reputation by painting him as a man pre-disposed to buying off opponents and even the media.

He stressed he never toiled for his wealth just to splurge it on something unprincipled and immoral.

The NP presidential candidate said the latest attack on his integrity that he allegedly tried to buy out a presidential rival from the race in exchange for funding reimbursement was part of the vilification pattern.

Remulla said the voters are more discerning now to believe the lies being spewed by the rivals of Villar, including fantastic insinuation that he is the secret candidate of the corrupt administration. END

The Campaigns and Images Group tasked a non-government organization that received financial grant from donor countries in the US and the European Economic Community to administer the questionnaire on individuals identified by sector, from services, industrial and agricultural, including occupations and age brackets. The first survey done by this group at the end of January 31, 2010 showed that former Defense Sec. Gibo Teodoro has overtaken Erap and was now 3rd behind the statistically tied Sen. Noynoy Aquino and Sen. Manny Villar.

Campaigns and Images has released its latest survey, which was conducted by volunteers from the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) between Feb.10 and 20. This new survey asked the question as to who has the better platform of government among the Presidentiables. Here are the latest results.

Confidence Rating and Error Margin Calculation

When I first published the first survey from this group, I got calls from many people why that survey wasn’t published or made public? My answer was, “This was the most unbiased of all surveys as it wasn’t collated to help any political candidate as the survey was commissioned to get into the bottom of who were really leading this Presidential race.” But the Campaigns & Images Group allowed me to publish its results.

This latest survey shows that Sen. Manny Villar has now overtaken the survey leader, Noynoy Aquino, III. Sen. Villar bagged a 32% or a 9 percentage points lead against survey leader, Noynoy Aquino who garnered 23%, while Gibo Teodoro, Jr. got 18 percentage points or a mere 6% behind Noynoy. Again let me point out that there are surveys being spread around in order to make their candidates look good. But by far, this survey is the most thorough and the most credible survey that I have ever seen because non-politicians commissioned it.
SHOOTING STRAIGHT By Bobit S. Avila (The Philippine Star) Updated March 05, 2010 12:00 AM

This is the problem with surveys done at this time; it is almost impossible to believe that there was no political slant, even in that Reader’s Digest survey. We’ve read most of the Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia Surveys, but most people say that these two companies have a very high credibility when it comes to poverty index or the like, but when it comes to political surveys, they often sound incredible. So, whose survey can we believe? After all, most of the PR groups handling politicians have their own surveys for their own client’s benefit.

A week ago, we came up with the first survey done by the Campaigns & Images Group (Philippines) that was commissioned by United Kingdom and US based companies doing business in the Philippines. A non-government organization that received financial grant from donor countries in the US and the European Economic Community administered the questionnaire on individuals identified by sector, from services, industrial and agricultural, including occupations and age brackets. The first survey done by this group at the end of January 31. 2010 showed that former Defense Sec. Gibo Teodoro had overtaken Erap and was 3rd behind the statistically tied Aquino and Villar.

This new survey asked the question as to who has the better platform of government among the Presidentiables. Here are the latest results.

Sample Depth : 5,100 individuals

Respondents : 4,947 individuals

Methodology : Random pick, Sector-representative

Target Sections : Luzon (2,958); Visayas (5,621), Mindanao (1,581)

CandidateResponse (A) (B) (C) % Pts

SizeLuzonMindanaoVisayas(A to C)

AQUINO1,16214%6%3%23.00%

VILLAR1,61018%10%4%32.00%

TEODORO93010%5%3%18.00%

ESTRADA2473%2%0.75%5.75%

OTHERS99811%7%0.25%20.00%

Total4,94757%31%11%99.00%

Confidence Rating and Error Margin Calculation

DescriptionResponse (A) (B) (C)

SizeLuzonMindanaoVisayas

Total Response4,9472,8191,533544

Sample Depth5,1002,9581,581561

Confidence %97.00%95.30%96.96%96.96%

Error Margin3.00%4.70%3.04%3.04%

When I first published the first survey, I got calls from many people why that survey wasn’t published or made public. My answer was, “This was the most unbiased of all surveys as it wasn’t collated to help any political candidate as the survey was commissioned to get into the bottom of who were really leading this Presidential race.” But the Campaigns & Images Group allowed me to publish its results.

For this second survey, it is clear that Sen. Manny Villar has now overtaken the survey leader, Noynoy Aquino, III. Villar bagged a 32% or a 9 percentage points lead against survey leader, Noynoy Aquino, while Gibo Teodoro Jr. got 18 percentage points or a mere 6% behind Noynoy. This new or latest survey was conducted by volunteers from the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) between Feb.10 and 20th.

There are surveys being spread around in order to make their candidates look good. But by far, this is the most thorough and the most credible survey that I have ever seen.

SHOOTING STRAIGHT By Valeriano Avila (The Freeman) Updated March 02, 2010 12:00 AM

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=554239

However, the mansion depicted in these photographs is not Mugabe’s residence at all. In fact, the very same set of photographs has also circulated in protest messages decrying the opulent lifestyles of other political leaders and celebrities. One version claims that the home belongs to President Pervaiz Musharraf of Pakistan. Another claims that the mansion is the home of former Nigerian ruler Ibrahim Babangida. Yet another version suggests that the photographs show the home of former Secretary of Health Care of Azerbaijan, Russia. And, finally, many references, including a YouTube video, claim that the home belongs to Bollywood superstar, Shahrukh Khan.

In fact, all these claims are false. The mansion in the photographs is actually a home located in the wealthy community of Bell Air, Los Angeles. The mansion is available as a location for film, television and commercial shoots and is featured as such on the website of location manager, Toni Maier. Thus, there is no truth in the story that the mansion in the photographs belongs to Mugabe. And, in any case, an ariel shot of Mugabe’s partially completed mansion in Harare shows a building quite different to the one depicted in these photographs.

Some commentators have claimed that the mansion belongs to Mugabe’s cousin Philippe Chiyangwa. However, this claim is also untrue. News photographs of Chiyangwa’s mansion show a residence with a different style and aspect than that of the mansion shown in the above photographs.

Although the photographs do not show Mugabe’s residence, various news reports indicate that, for several years, he has been building himself a lavish mansion while a great many of his people live under terrible conditions. The controversial leader also has other luxurious residences. A 2003 report in The Guardian UK notes:

Robert Mugabe, the president of Zimbabwe, is building a lavish palace costing £3.75m on the outskirts of the capital, Harare.

Furnishings and security are expected to send the cost to more than £6m at a time when nearly half of Zimbabwe’s population is dependent on international food aid.

Its sprawling accommodation includes 25 bedrooms with bathrooms and spas. It is three times the size of the president’s official residence, State House, and his adjacent offices.

The mansion, located in the upmarket Borrowdale Brooke area, about 15 miles north of the city centre, is nearing completion. The construction company Energoproject, based in Belgrade, is building the palace.

Mr Mugabe has built smaller mansions in Harare and Zvimba, his birthplace, as well a Chivu, the birthplace of his wife, Grace.

And newzimbabwe.com notes: THE Harare City Council has embarked on a multi-billion-dollar project to widen two roads which form a link to President Robert Mugabe’s mansion in Helensvale, a report in the Zimbabwe Independent said.

Major civil works have already started to widen Carrick Creagh and Borrowdale Brook roads which link the mansion to Crow-hill Road

This is to clarify certain points that a reader, a certain Jocelyn Gonzales, publicly raised about Sen. Manny Villar’s ads (”Money” talks, PDI opinion page, Feb 17, 2010).

1. That “the line between truth and claims gets blurred”, that claims can be turned into truth with Villar’s ads, Goebbels (Nazi propagandist) of Hitler proselytizes so. Unfortunately, even Ms. Gonzales believes in the dictum of repeating a lie to appear true.

The truth in Villar’s ads is that we can still rise above the sorry state of our country, that even in utter poverty (”nasubukan mo na bang maligo sa dagat ng basura?..,”) and, despite the miserable conditions of the poorest of the poor, there is still hope. Even Rizal offered hope to our subjugated people. In fact, great leaders distinguish themselves by moving forward despite great odds. And successful leaders are not necessarily from the creme de la creme of society inherited from rich parents. They can be with the common folk.

As to Villar’s attitude in the Senate hearings on the C-5 project, there is nothing wrong with answering the accusations with facts. No matter how much Villar’s political rivals gang-up on him, it doesn’t change the fact that: 1) there was no “double insertion” into the project; 2) land prices are based on official valuation and computation; and, 3) there is no moral and legal wrong in doing business while in public office.

The truth is the truth no matter how much you bend, twist, spin, or cover it up. Calling Manny as “Money” as Ms. Gonzales and other pundits are wont to repeat doesn’t turn him into cash.

2. That the people endorsing him are just there for money – Dolphy with his “high maintenance families”, Revillame “who only recognizes money”, and Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza, as Ms. Gonzales maliciously claims, “have sold out”.

Dolphy and Revillame have their high-paying jobs even before the ads. Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza have been steadfast with their principles at the pain of intensified repression and fraud.

Those people whom Ms. Gonzales mentioned are with Villar’s campaign because he was able to unite a really broad coalition of social, political and cultural forces. It was because of his platform for the poor, the deprived and the oppressed – a cause which even the Church recognizes. We should not reduce everything to money. Doing so cheapens human beings.

3. Finally, Ms. Gonzales warns the voting public against being swayed by the ads. She says we would truly deserve “leaders” like GMA’s immoral and stolen presidency. This would be of “our own doing.”

I think Ms. Gonzales should not blame the voting public. Twice in our recent history we removed immoral leaders. No, we don’t deserve fake leaders. Don’t blame the people, blame the government. Vox populi, vox Dei.

Thank you again for accommodating this reaction.

Miguel Ortilla

Ateneo de Manila University

Loyola Heights, Quezon City

23 February 2010

The Opinion Editor

Philippine Daily Inquirer

***

The survey, conducted last January 22 to 26, said 70 percent of the 1,800 respondents had “big trust” in Villar, slightly better than Aquino’s 64 percent.

Pulse Asia earlier released a presidential preference survey conducted during the same period, where Aquino was preferred by 37 percent of voters, and Villar by 35 percent.

The two were virtually tied for first place since the survey had a ±2 margin of error (See: Aquino, Villar neck and neck in latest Pulse Asia survey)

Based on the poll results released only on Wednesday, Villar’s trust rating improved by a point from a similar survey last December, while the number of those who said they were undecided dropped by 2 percentage points to 18 percent.

On the other hand, Aquino’s trust rating dropped by 8 points, while the rate of undecided respondents in the trust survey increased by 6 percentage points to 23 percent.

Both Villar and Aquino, however, added two points to their distrust ratings of 12 percent each from two months earlier.

The survey was conducted in the heat of Senate floor debates on the C-5 Road extension issue, where Villar allegedly enriched himself and his property companies at the expense of the government.

Ambivalent on Teodoro
Meanwhile, former President Joseph Estrada, a convicted plunderer but released after he was pardoned by the present administration, posted practically the same trust and distrust ratings (33% versus 37%).

Public assessment of the trustworthiness of former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. — the administration bet — is divided, with 36% of Filipinos ambivalent on the matter, 32% trusting him, and 31% distrusting him.

Senator Richard Gordon had a 26-percent trust rating against 32 percent who distrusted him.

The survey said the other presidential aspirants posted near to small majority distrust ratings — Senator Jamby Madrigal (47%), Olongapo City Councilor JC de los Reyes (50%), Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetallano S. Acosta (51%), evangelist Eduardo Villanueva (53%), and Center for Alternative Development Initiatives (CADI) President Jesus Nicanor Perlas (54%).

Campaign strategy
Political analyst Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Economic Reform (IPER), said Villar’s political ads that played up his rags-to-riches story appeared to have worked wonders for his image despite the C-5 controversy.

“These must have had a huge impact since majority of our voting base are from Class D and E,” he told GMANews.TV in Filipino.

He also claimed the C-5 issue was difficult to grasp and had not been explained in detail to the public.

Casiple added that Villar’s ability to come up with a senatorial slate composed of both rightist and leftist elements — among them Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late strongman Ferdinand Marcos, and militant leaders Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza — must have strengthened his support base.

Benito Lim, Ateneo de Manila University political science professor, said Aquino’s trust rating had likely gone down because the public no longer approves of his continued use of his parents’ legacy in his presidential campaign.

“Noynoy’s campaign managers erred [when they allowed him to] keep on using his parents’ names,” Lim told GMANews.TV by phone.

He said Filipinos don’t like it when somebody, even a son, exploits people they have come to respect — his parents, for instance — former President Corazon Aquino and Senator Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr., now both deceased.

Lim also said Aquino’s repeated campaign promise that he would not steal was not boosting his presidential bid since politicians before him had made and broken that promise.

In contrast, Villar’s campaign strategists appeared to be doing the right thing by spending on TV and radio ads and getting popular celebrity endorsers.

The analyst claimed Villar and Nacionalista Party stalwarts had directly addressed the C-5 Road controversy, while Aquino had not been clear about his plan on Hacienda Luisita.

“These issues are toxic to both of them but at least Villar and his friends… have tried to show that the project had benefited the public. Aquino on the other hand, has only said he would do something about it Hacienda Luisita, and that he is just a minority stockholder,” Lim said. — NPA, GMANews.TV

JOHANNA CAMILLE SISANTE, GMANews.TV

02/24/2010 | 11:16 AM